The below image was released by NOAA yesterday, 7 April 2014. It shows the NCEP climate model is anticipating the arrival of this Kelvin wave – and that El Niño will surface around May 2014 and likely intensify during the boreal summer and autumn:

NOAA NCEP model forecast of 7 April 2014 shows El Niño may arrive somewhat sooner than expected. This run shows a moderate and steadily increasing strength (>+0.5 – <+1.5C) over the first couple of months. 

Whether it will be strong El Niño or moderate El Niño still seems uncertain. One thing seems sure though: it will last several months, define the world’s climate for the second half of 2014 – and lead to a new peak in global temperatures, also in 2015.

© Rolf Schuttenhelm | www.bitsofscience.org