Observed vs ‘Real’ Global Temperature. What thermometers do & don’t yet show!

After a perceived ‘temperature plateau‘ of about a decade, global temperatures seem to be rising faster than ever before. First 2014 broke the global record for hottest year (then held by 2010). Then 2015 broke that record. And 2016 in … Continue reading

Real Global Temperature Trend, p15 – 2016-2020 global forecast: 5-year average temperatures above 2015 record, despite La Niña

It’s raining climate records since late 2014. That has increased to a proper storm from October 2015 – the first month to show global temperature anomalies of more than 1 degree above the 1951-1980 climate average (so higher still above … Continue reading

Hurry up if you still want to see Aurora Borealis – current solar cycle declining, new maximum not until >2023

It’s been a while since we last paid attention to the forecasts of Sunspot Cycle 24. So here’s an update – based on NASA Marshall Space Flight Center observations and forecasts. Cause there is news!

Graph of the Day: World has warmest winter on record

[Not just the Arctic experiences the warmest winter on record – this goes for the entire globe, new NASA data show. We now have the hottest winter on record straight after the hottest summer on record.] Just when you thought positive global … Continue reading

Breaking: the summer of 2015 (June, July & August) was globally hottest summer ever. August hottest August ever-measured, also third highest deviation for any month

The August 2015 global data of NOAA (full report) are just in. It was another record-hot month – the hottest August ever measured – already the 6th month of 2015 to be higher than any other previously recorded (February, March, … Continue reading

Global 2015-2016 winter forecast: comparing NCEP model runs to NOAA’s ‘typical El Niño patterns’ – Brazil in for shock, little relief for California

Normally we think of droughts over South East Asia (i.e. Borneo) and north-eastern Australia (Queensland) associated with strong El Niño events. This for instance led to dramatic fires through the tropical rainforests of Borneo, during the last ‘Super El Niño’ … Continue reading

NASA climate model forecast shows 2015 El Niño to go off the charts during Paris climate summit

According to the world’s best-established dynamical climate models (e.g. NOAA NCEP, NASA GMAO) the 2015 El Niño is set to peak to dramatic proportions just before and possibly also during the all-important Paris climate summit – the UNFCCC’s ‘COP21′ – … Continue reading

Halfway through and 2014 Hottest Year Prediction coming very close to Truth

Okay, disclaimer first: there may be a bit of a climate ego involved in this post. So therefore it is probably best to start with where we were wrong(ish). Based on some rather extensive monitoring of climate models over several … Continue reading