Tag Archives: temperature anomaly

Two hottest years ever: 2014 will set new world temperature record – and 2015 will break it

El Niño Southern Oscillation index: duration and intensity of La Niña and El Niño years. El Niño is usually defined as a positive temperature anomaly in the east and central tropical Pacific. Another way to express the climate phenomenon is … Continue reading →

A weak or a strong El Niño ahead? Hint: we live in a 3D world

If we take another look at the IRI ensemble forecast for El Niño some members show a clear and speedy rise in East Pacific tropical ocean temperatures. Before we conclude ‘El Niño ahead’ during northern hemisphere summer and autumn let’s … Continue reading →

NOAA forecasts El Niño increase during 2nd half 2014, moderate El Niño in boreal summer, possibly ‘strong’ in autumn

According to NOAA’s NCEP climate prediction model the Pacific Niño 3.4 region may experience more than a +1.5 degrees Celsius sea surface temperature anomaly, then officially qualifying as ‘strong El Niño’ – shown in graph below.

Ensemble El Niño forecast speeding up. El Niño during boreal summer 2014, possibly >+0.5C already by June

El Niño forecast, IRI ensemble: leading climate models show El Niño during summer 2014 Compared to last month’s forecast the IRI climate model ensemble shows a somewhat faster development of a positive ENSO state and clear indications of El Niño … Continue reading →

Hellmann development Dutch winters shows cold declining

In climatology development of the average may differ substantially from the extremes – both as a characteristic of the normal distribution – and the possibility of skewness increases. On average the Dutch climate shows a clear warming trend – but … Continue reading →

ENSO forecast: La Niña at least up to April 2012, El Niño possible

Comparing the different ENSO forecast models we conclude the first half of 2012 will most likely (on average) be dominated by the current La Niña phase. Most models however show progression towards neutral and some to El Niño before the … Continue reading →