Ensemble El Niño forecast speeding up. El Niño during boreal summer 2014, possibly >+0.5C already by June

El Niño forecast 2014 - El Niño during summer
El Niño forecast, IRI ensemble: leading climate models show El Niño during summer 2014

Compared to last month’s forecast the IRI climate model ensemble shows a somewhat faster development of a positive ENSO state and clear indications of El Niño conditions, during the boreal summer of 2014, possibly already passing the +0.5C threshold for tropical East-Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly by June – as most leading models (NCEP, JMA, NASA, ECMWF) indicate.

Mild El Niño state forecasts have been in the pipeline since early 2014 – possibly ending a long dominance of negative ENSO/La Niña conditions over recent years [although their have been some slight El Niño-like hickups].

As ENSO influences ocean-atmosphere heat absorption developing El Niño can have measurable influence on both local and global average temperatures throughout 2014.

Shown below the same IRI ensemble forecast, one month earlier – already hinting at developing El Niño conditions during boreal summer of 2014.

Previous IRI El Niño forecast 2014
Climate models have consistently shown developing EL Niño conditions in their forecasts from early 2014 – as in this IRI ensemble from mid-February.

© Rolf Schuttenhelm | www.bitsofscience.org

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