El Niño forecast, IRI ensemble: leading climate models show El Niño during summer 2014

Compared to last month’s forecast the IRI climate model ensemble shows a somewhat faster development of a positive ENSO state and clear indications of El Niño conditions, during the boreal summer of 2014, possibly already passing the +0.5C threshold for tropical East-Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly by June – as most leading models (NCEP, JMA, NASA, ECMWF) indicate.

Mild El Niño state forecasts have been in the pipeline since early 2014 – possibly ending a long dominance of negative ENSO/La Niña conditions over recent years [although their have been some slight El Niño-like hickups].

As ENSO influences ocean-atmosphere heat absorption developing El Niño can have measurable influence on both local and global average temperatures throughout 2014.

Shown below the same IRI ensemble forecast, one month earlier – already hinting at developing El Niño conditions during boreal summer of 2014.

Climate models have consistently shown developing EL Niño conditions in their forecasts from early 2014 – as in this IRI ensemble from mid-February.

© Rolf Schuttenhelm | www.bitsofscience.org