Two hottest years ever: 2014 will set new world temperature record – and 2015 will break it

El Niño Southern Oscillation index: duration and intensity of La Niña and El Niño years. El Niño is usually defined as a positive temperature anomaly in the east and central tropical Pacific. Another way to express the climate phenomenon is … Continue reading

A weak or a strong El Niño ahead? Hint: we live in a 3D world

If we take another look at the IRI ensemble forecast for El Niño some members show a clear and speedy rise in East Pacific tropical ocean temperatures. Before we conclude ‘El Niño ahead’ during northern hemisphere summer and autumn let’s … Continue reading

Ensemble El Niño forecast speeding up. El Niño during boreal summer 2014, possibly >+0.5C already by June

El Niño forecast, IRI ensemble: leading climate models show El Niño during summer 2014 Compared to last month’s forecast the IRI climate model ensemble shows a somewhat faster development of a positive ENSO state and clear indications of El Niño … Continue reading

Both historical and 60-year trend show Dutch winters are warming – these graphs tell you how, why – and what to expect

Falling snow flakes are humbling. Not just because of their beauty, but also because of their gentle ability to completely paralyse a developed and overpopulated country with traffic jams, clogged railroad switches and closed runways. But although that (together with … Continue reading

Largest known sea level rise took less than 350 years

Ocean level rise is known as one of the most disquieting effects of global warming, with more than three billion people living on the coast or less than 200 kilometres land inward and one tenth of the world population living … Continue reading

Carbon dioxide’s climate effects confirmed: temperatures followed rising CO2 levels during last deglaciation

There has been much speculation about what exactly caused the end of the last ice age 10,000 years ago. Some say the Earth’s orbital changes were the cause, others say it was an increase in atmospheric CO2. But although a … Continue reading

Graph of the day: weather extremes are on the rise

weather extremes graphWhy write a full news story when a single graph tells you everything: ‘unprecedented records in monthly mean temperature’ between 1900-2000 for 17 weather stations across the globe.

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Can medieval volcanic eruptions have caused global cooling when tree rings don’t show?

A group of researchers led by climatologist Michael E. Mann of the Earth System Science Center of Pennsylvania State University says the dendrochronological record does not always offer the best temperature reconstruction. Apparently some trees find it hard to distinguish … Continue reading

NASA GISS: 2011 9th-warmest year on record – hot for a strong La Niña

Graph of the day: world temperature record between 1880 and 2011, showing annual and 5-year mean temperature, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) data. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory, Robert Simmon.