Small Island States don’t (yet*) make global headlines, but this NASA picture shows a new Pacific climate record, which has a story for us all.
According to the world’s best-established dynamical climate models (e.g. NOAA NCEP, NASA GMAO) the 2015 El Niño is set to peak to dramatic proportions just before and possibly also during the all-important Paris climate summit – the UNFCCC’s ‘COP21′ – … Continue reading
Shown below is a graph of the satellite-derived University of Alabama global temperature dataset (those fellows that each year in early January beat NOAA/NASA/MetOffice/WMO etc by being the first to say ‘how warm it was’). Clearly visible is the peak … Continue reading
We expect a new global average temperature record for 2014 to be broken in 2015. Where will all the extra heat go?
El Niño Southern Oscillation index: duration and intensity of La Niña and El Niño years. El Niño is usually defined as a positive temperature anomaly in the east and central tropical Pacific. Another way to express the climate phenomenon is … Continue reading
If we take another look at the IRI ensemble forecast for El Niño some members show a clear and speedy rise in East Pacific tropical ocean temperatures. Before we conclude ‘El Niño ahead’ during northern hemisphere summer and autumn let’s … Continue reading
According to NOAA’s NCEP climate prediction model the Pacific Niño 3.4 region may experience more than a +1.5 degrees Celsius sea surface temperature anomaly, then officially qualifying as ‘strong El Niño’ – shown in graph below.
El Niño forecast, IRI ensemble: leading climate models show El Niño during summer 2014 Compared to last month’s forecast the IRI climate model ensemble shows a somewhat faster development of a positive ENSO state and clear indications of El Niño … Continue reading