NOAA forecasts El Niño increase during 2nd half 2014, moderate El Niño in boreal summer, possibly ‘strong’ in autumn

According to NOAA’s NCEP climate prediction model the Pacific Niño 3.4 region may experience more than a +1.5 degrees Celsius sea surface temperature anomaly, then officially qualifying as ‘strong El Niño’ – shown in graph below.

Ensemble El Niño forecast speeding up. El Niño during boreal summer 2014, possibly >+0.5C already by June

El Niño forecast, IRI ensemble: leading climate models show El Niño during summer 2014 Compared to last month’s forecast the IRI climate model ensemble shows a somewhat faster development of a positive ENSO state and clear indications of El Niño … Continue reading

Largest known sea level rise took less than 350 years

Ocean level rise is known as one of the most disquieting effects of global warming, with more than three billion people living on the coast or less than 200 kilometres land inward and one tenth of the world population living … Continue reading

Scientists present multi-model warming forecast for North American regions

For the first time, researchers have been able to combine different climate models using spatial statistics – to project future seasonal temperature changes in regions across North America.

Continue reading

Tiny air samplers new tool in improving climate models

Miniscule air samplersAn air sampler the size of an ear plug is expected to cheaply and easily collect atmospheric samples to improve computer climate models.

“We now have an inexpensive tool for collecting pristine vapor samples in the field,” said Sandia National Laboratories researcher Ron Manginell, lead author of the cover story for the Review of Scientific Instruments, the often-cited journal of the American Institute of Physics.

Continue reading

Can medieval volcanic eruptions have caused global cooling when tree rings don’t show?

A group of researchers led by climatologist Michael E. Mann of the Earth System Science Center of Pennsylvania State University says the dendrochronological record does not always offer the best temperature reconstruction. Apparently some trees find it hard to distinguish … Continue reading