SRM geoengineering more likely to increase global food production

If we would pump aerosols in the stratosphere to artificially cool the Earth and thereby compensate (part of) the current climate warming, we would be permanently living under a slight sunshade.

That would mean in a futuristic world it may take you a couple of minutes longer to get that nice spring tan. But it may also hurt agricultural productivity, some have suggested. Plants after all need sunlight as the energy source for photosynthesis, or growth.

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ENSO forecast: La Niña at least up to April 2012, El Niño possible

Comparing the different ENSO forecast models we conclude the first half of 2012 will most likely (on average) be dominated by the current La Niña phase. Most models however show progression towards neutral and some to El Niño before the onset of the boreal summer, while others show a more stable La Niña projection.

La Niña forecast 2012 - El Niño ENSO
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NASA GISS: 2011 9th-warmest year on record – hot for a strong La Niña

NASA GISS temperature record 2011
Graph of the day: world temperature record between 1880 and 2011, showing annual and 5-year mean temperature, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) data. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory, Robert Simmon.

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When the ice goes, so does the rainforest – boreal warming linked to Amazon droughts

We knew there must have been a connection between climate warming and damaging droughts in the world’s largest rainforest, as the two globally hottest years on record (2005 and 2010) coincide with the two record droughts in the Amazon – which led to large-scale forest degradation and the release of several gigatonnes of extra CO2 into the atmosphere.

Amazon drought warming disturbs monsoonBut why exactly? Shouldn’t global warming lead to a simple increase in the general circulation – so even more rain in the wet tropics? As always, practice is more complicated.

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He who controls ENSO rules all: even flu pandemics now connected to La Niña – 2012 virus forecast

If this is true best stack up on your supply of antiviral drugs, because there would be an above-average chance of experiencing another influenza pandemic during the approaching northern hemisphere spring or summer of 2012 (as indeed La Niña is back).

Flu pandemic La Niña bird migration routes
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Today’s paradox: global warming may offset Criegee cooling

Criegee climate coolingAnd that’s not quite the same as having things the other way around. If you see Criegee biradicals as silver bullet, remember they are already constantly being fired up…

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No more ‘horror winters’ for Europe – not for several years ahead – and indeed also not this year

Extremely cold winters for Europe persisting for several months are very rare. The last one to fit the definition occurred in 1963, almost half a century ago. Still many weather forecasters and media seem inclined (as again happened this year) to report on pending ‘horror winters’ – often without presenting much more than an animated air pressure chart to show how it would appear, and little or no published background information as to why it would happen.

As such winters are extremely rare, but theoretically possible; one could argue there is a fair chance for such predictions to become reality. But, thanks to recent advances in climate science, no more.

New insights* have led to improved predictability of a few key factors. Judging by these critical indicators at least the European winters of 2011-2012, 2012-2013, 2013-2014, 2014-2015 will have some normal climatic variation, but will not present persistent temperatures significantly below average – winters that keep the deep freeze on for several months.

Therefore it seems it would be a good thing to help end the horror winter hype – for now – and probably for some time longer as well.

AMOC forecast excludes European horror winters
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