We could say clouds are too complicated for climate science – and ignore them forever. We could also just try to incorporate them in the models. If you do, chance is you’ll find climate sensitivity is underestimated, a very interesting … Continue reading
Several studies suggest global dimming aerosol cooling is not overestimated, but underestimated. But in our quest to uncover ‘The Real Global Temperature Trend‘ – we need to be open for all possibilities – even the bizarrely unsatisfying slap in the … Continue reading
As a regular you will be well aware that some clouds cool the climate and other clouds warm. Determining the exact balance of the cloud-climate feedback will help decrease uncertainty margins for 21st century warming forecasts. Unfortunately it’s a complicated … Continue reading
As for weather extremes, for the climate average too a smaller-chance-higher-risk range exists, as indicated by the light-blue climate model members to the right.
That would likely mean that also the official UN climate goal of limiting the average world temperature rise to no more than 2 degrees Celsius – a target linked to 450 ppm CO2 equivalent stabilisation scenarios (practically ambitious, theoretically weak) … Continue reading
Says an international research group led by Gothenburg University. It serves to show individual climate sensitivity studies are never conclusive but add up bits of fresh understanding to an already enormous pile of data and knowledge.
The most-quoted climate sensitivity range (IPCC 4AR) suggests a median temperature response to a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration of 3 degrees Celsius – and a 66 percent probability range warming under CO2-doubling will be somewhere between 1.5 and … Continue reading
Is it the albedo effect? Is it increased ice dynamics? Dutch researchers add a third player to better understand why Arctic melting is happening as fast as it is. The clue is in the winter polar night skies, they say.
Researchers of Utrecht University say the Greenland ice sheet may be more stable now than during the Eemian, the previous interglacial period, which lasted from 130,000-114,000 years BP. It turns out back then Arctic insolation was bigger – although still … Continue reading