Searching for Real Global Temperature Trend, part 2 – Global Dimming: if aerosol cooling is underestimated, then warming trend is higher

Yes. It’s been a while, but we have an update in our Today’s Paradox series: If aerosol climate cooling is underestimated, that means the trend line of the global temperature graph would lie higher than the one you get by … Continue reading

Local Indonesian El Niño progression, possibility strong wildfire season Borneo, Sumatra

Over the course of 2012 ENSO has moved from La Niña to El Niño state. Various ENSO forecasting models (see NOAA NECP, IRI ensemble below) now show Pacific equatorial SSTs anomalies will remain positive for the remainder of 2012 – … Continue reading

Climate change may provoke new ozone holes over populated areas in two different ways – increasing risk of skin cancers

In a couple of weeks’ time humanity can celebrate the 25-year anniversary of the Montreal Protocol, our greatest environmental success story. In the margins of this good news there are however also a few new ozone concerns. Climate change may … Continue reading

Some weather extremes simply lie beyond Gaussian distribution

When assessing the climate system it doesn’t hurt to include some geography to your statistical assumptions. After all, without mountains, oceans and coastlines there would be no weather, just one boring climatic average – and therefore no ground to create … Continue reading

Hellmann development Dutch winters shows cold declining

In climatology development of the average may differ substantially from the extremes – both as a characteristic of the normal distribution – and the possibility of skewness increases. On average the Dutch climate shows a clear warming trend – but … Continue reading

Today´s paradox: European cold winters associated with Arctic warming – and positive(!) AO

Warming in the Arctic would increase the chance of cold winters in Europe and parts of North America and Asia. There have now been three consecutive studies that reach this conclusion in as many years. That means it is about … Continue reading

When the ice goes, so does the rainforest – boreal warming linked to Amazon droughts

We knew there must have been a connection between climate warming and damaging droughts in the world’s largest rainforest, as the two globally hottest years on record (2005 and 2010) coincide with the two record droughts in the Amazon – … Continue reading

No more ‘horror winters’ for Europe – not for several years ahead – and indeed also not this year

Extremely cold winters for Europe persisting for several months are very rare. The last one to fit the definition occurred in 1963, almost half a century ago. Still many weather forecasters and media seem inclined (as again happened this year) … Continue reading