Northwest Europe can expect a couple of winters with relatively frosty conditions, as one key driver of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is set to favour blockades of westerlies, allowing periods dominated by a supply of cold and relatively dry … Continue reading
When world leaders gather in Paris from November 30 to December 12/13 to negotiate a new UN climate treaty the urgency of that matter is very likely to create its own headlines across the globe, if you’d connect the brown … Continue reading
Normally we think of droughts over South East Asia (i.e. Borneo) and north-eastern Australia (Queensland) associated with strong El Niño events. This for instance led to dramatic fires through the tropical rainforests of Borneo, during the last ‘Super El Niño’ … Continue reading
We expect a new global average temperature record for 2014 to be broken in 2015. Where will all the extra heat go?
El Niño forecast, IRI ensemble: leading climate models show El Niño during summer 2014 Compared to last month’s forecast the IRI climate model ensemble shows a somewhat faster development of a positive ENSO state and clear indications of El Niño … Continue reading
As red tones cannot get much darker when you approach black, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology had to resort to introducing new colours on their weather forecast maps for next week, when inland temperatures in South Australia can locally reach … Continue reading
Over the course of 2012 ENSO has moved from La Niña to El Niño state. Various ENSO forecasting models (see NOAA NECP, IRI ensemble below) now show Pacific equatorial SSTs anomalies will remain positive for the remainder of 2012 – … Continue reading
Each year at the end of winter the Arctic sea ice reaches its maximum extent. Although unsurprisingly this ice maximum receives less media attention than the annual sea ice minimum in September, combining the two gives a better representation of … Continue reading