Real Global Temperature Trend, p24 – Paleoclimate tells we may have 3 degrees additional warming in pipeline at current CO2 concentration!

Either the entire world is set to experience dramatic additional warming once we stabilise at the current (400+ ppm) CO2 concentration – or we are still dramatically underestimating the local climate sensitivity of the Arctic – a region that might … Continue reading

Real Global Temperature Trend, p17 – Climate System Thermal Inertia is lower when you don’t assume CO2 flatline

Oceans, oceans, oceans. You thought the atmosphere was complex? Well, just take a look at the oceans. Oddly shaped features with disturbing cycles and conveyor belt currents. Home of the octopus, the blue whale and a Mariana Trench full of … Continue reading

Real Global Temperature Trend, p16 – Climate System Thermal Inertia: Trend Line = 0.6C higher than observed temperatures show

In part 16 of our temperature trend series we take a better look at one of the main reasons almost everyone still underestimates climate urgency: ‘Thermal inertia’ of the climate system – a delay between the moment of emissions of … Continue reading

Real Global Temperature Trend, p10 – Refining cloud feedbacks lifts climate sensitivity to 5-5.3 degrees(!), say Yale researchers

Climate models have falsely assumed a (strong) cloud brightening cooling feedback, researchers of Yale University (Ivy Tan & Trude Storelvmo) and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (Mark Zelinka) write in Science. Refining cloud behaviour in a warming atmosphere leads to … Continue reading

Real Global Temperature Trend, p5 – Climate Sensitivity higher when models include subtropical cloud-decrease feedback

We could say clouds are too complicated for climate science – and ignore them forever. We could also just try to incorporate them in the models. If you do, chance is you’ll find climate sensitivity is underestimated, a very interesting … Continue reading

Climate change may provoke new ozone holes over populated areas in two different ways – increasing risk of skin cancers

In a couple of weeks’ time humanity can celebrate the 25-year anniversary of the Montreal Protocol, our greatest environmental success story. In the margins of this good news there are however also a few new ozone concerns. Climate change may … Continue reading

Climate change caused 2,500 year collapse of Panamanian coral reef

partly dead coral reefClimate change drove coral reefs to a total ecosystem collapse lasting thousands of years, according to a paper published this week in Science. The paper shows how natural climatic shifts stopped reef growth in the eastern Pacific for 2,500 years. The reef shutdown, which began 4,000 years ago, corresponds to a period of dramatic swings in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). “As humans continue to pump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, the climate is once again on the threshold of a new regime, with dire consequences for reef ecosystems unless we get control of climate change,” said coauthor Richard Aronson, a biology professor at Florida Institute of Technology.

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