Local Indonesian El Niño progression, possibility strong wildfire season Borneo, Sumatra

Over the course of 2012 ENSO has moved from La Niña to El Niño state. Various ENSO forecasting models (see NOAA NECP, IRI ensemble below) now show Pacific equatorial SSTs anomalies will remain positive for the remainder of 2012 – … Continue reading

Pliocene-Pleistocene boundary: did Eltanin asteroid kickstart the ice ages?

Sediment deposits along shores of Antarctica, New Zealand and Chile suggest over 2 million years ago something big must have plunged somewhere in the middle of that triangle, creating a mega tsunami with hundreds of meters high waves engulfing coastal … Continue reading

Earlier heat stress helps corals overcome climate change

Coral reefA team of international scientists working in the central Pacific has discovered that coral which has survived heat stress in the past is more likely to survive it in the future.

The study, published March 30 in the journal PLoS ONE, paves the way towards an important road map on the impacts of ocean warming, and will help scientists identify the habitats and locations where coral reefs are more likely to adapt to climate change.

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ENSO forecast: La Niña at least up to April 2012, El Niño possible

Comparing the different ENSO forecast models we conclude the first half of 2012 will most likely (on average) be dominated by the current La Niña phase. Most models however show progression towards neutral and some to El Niño before the … Continue reading

Strong re-emergence of La Niña off northern Queensland coast – SST anomalies again up to 2-3 degrees – above average rains for weeks to come

With the current La Niña strongly in place at the onset of the Australian monsoon and reaching predicted optimum strength at the height of the rainy season the risk of experiencing a repeat of the Queensland floods of 2010-2011 is … Continue reading

Ice age riddle: what burped CO2 and wasn’t ocean or Neanderthal?

During the Earth’s ice ages the Pacific Ocean stored large amounts of carbon, which for some reason it released again close to the last glacial period’s end, warming the world and melting most of the icecaps. That is how the … Continue reading