Tag Archives: mid-range climate forecast
February forecast Europe: La Niña effects starting, stabilising weather, coldest winter month, no lasting frost due to Azores high
ENSO forecast: La Niña at least up to April 2012, El Niño possible
Comparing the different ENSO forecast models we conclude the first half of 2012 will most likely (on average) be dominated by the current La Niña phase. Most models however show progression towards neutral and some to El Niño before the … Continue reading
No more ‘horror winters’ for Europe – not for several years ahead – and indeed also not this year
Extremely cold winters for Europe persisting for several months are very rare. The last one to fit the definition occurred in 1963, almost half a century ago. Still many weather forecasters and media seem inclined (as again happened this year) … Continue reading
Westerlies keep firm grip on European winter – mild and rainy January ahead
No White Christmas over the European plains – we are sorry we were right
In the last two or three years high pressure blockades dominated the West European December months and many countries including the UK, the Netherlands and Germany could enjoy White Christmases. Christmas Day 2010: some lovely sunshine over a frozen and … Continue reading
Strong re-emergence of La Niña off northern Queensland coast – SST anomalies again up to 2-3 degrees – above average rains for weeks to come
With the current La Niña strongly in place at the onset of the Australian monsoon and reaching predicted optimum strength at the height of the rainy season the risk of experiencing a repeat of the Queensland floods of 2010-2011 is … Continue reading