Halfway through and 2014 Hottest Year Prediction coming very close to Truth

Okay, disclaimer first: there may be a bit of a climate ego involved in this post. So therefore it is probably best to start with where we were wrong(ish). Based on some rather extensive monitoring of climate models over several … Continue reading

This image shows it all. El Niño from May, intensifying over 2014

The below image was released by NOAA yesterday, 7 April 2014. It shows the NCEP climate model is anticipating the arrival of this Kelvin wave – and that El Niño will surface around May 2014 and likely intensify during the boreal summer … Continue reading

A weak or a strong El Niño ahead? Hint: we live in a 3D world

If we take another look at the IRI ensemble forecast for El Niño some members show a clear and speedy rise in East Pacific tropical ocean temperatures. Before we conclude ‘El Niño ahead’ during northern hemisphere summer and autumn let’s … Continue reading

NOAA forecasts El Niño increase during 2nd half 2014, moderate El Niño in boreal summer, possibly ‘strong’ in autumn

According to NOAA’s NCEP climate prediction model the Pacific Niño 3.4 region may experience more than a +1.5 degrees Celsius sea surface temperature anomaly, then officially qualifying as ‘strong El Niño’ – shown in graph below.

Ensemble El Niño forecast speeding up. El Niño during boreal summer 2014, possibly >+0.5C already by June

El Niño forecast, IRI ensemble: leading climate models show El Niño during summer 2014 Compared to last month’s forecast the IRI climate model ensemble shows a somewhat faster development of a positive ENSO state and clear indications of El Niño … Continue reading