Indonesian wildfires set to continue – IRI forecast paints heavily shaken global climate system during COP21

When world leaders gather in Paris from November 30 to December 12/13 to negotiate a new UN climate treaty the urgency of that matter is very likely to create its own headlines across the globe, if you’d connect the brown … Continue reading

Ensemble El Niño forecast speeding up. El Niño during boreal summer 2014, possibly >+0.5C already by June

El Niño forecast, IRI ensemble: leading climate models show El Niño during summer 2014 Compared to last month’s forecast the IRI climate model ensemble shows a somewhat faster development of a positive ENSO state and clear indications of El Niño … Continue reading

Local Indonesian El Niño progression, possibility strong wildfire season Borneo, Sumatra

Over the course of 2012 ENSO has moved from La Niña to El Niño state. Various ENSO forecasting models (see NOAA NECP, IRI ensemble below) now show Pacific equatorial SSTs anomalies will remain positive for the remainder of 2012 – … Continue reading