Today´s paradox: European cold winters associated with Arctic warming – and positive(!) AO

Warming in the Arctic would increase the chance of cold winters in Europe and parts of North America and Asia. There have now been three consecutive studies that reach this conclusion in as many years. That means it is about … Continue reading

SRM geoengineering more likely to increase global food production

If we would pump aerosols in the stratosphere to artificially cool the Earth and thereby compensate (part of) the current climate warming, we would be permanently living under a slight sunshade. That would mean in a futuristic world it may … Continue reading

ENSO forecast: La Niña at least up to April 2012, El Niño possible

Comparing the different ENSO forecast models we conclude the first half of 2012 will most likely (on average) be dominated by the current La Niña phase. Most models however show progression towards neutral and some to El Niño before the … Continue reading

Drop in CO2 heralded the onset of Antarctic glaciation

For about 100 million years all sorts of animals roamed the then subtropical North and South poles. But then suddenly some 34 million years ago during the Eocene everything changed when temperatures fell dramatically in only a 100,000 year timespan, … Continue reading

Good news? According to paleo research median CO2 climate sensitivity could be 0.7 degrees lower

The most-quoted climate sensitivity range (IPCC 4AR) suggests a median temperature response to a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration of 3 degrees Celsius – and a 66 percent probability range warming under CO2-doubling will be somewhere between 1.5 and … Continue reading

No reason to assume cold European winter ahead – too many sunspots

The cold winter of 2011-2012 that some meteorologists have predicted for Ireland, England, Scotland, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and Denmark is in fact to be called unlikely.

Lack of Arctic winter ice recovery explained: thermal inversion prevents infrared cooling to space

Is it the albedo effect? Is it increased ice dynamics? Dutch researchers add a third player to better understand why Arctic melting is happening as fast as it is. The clue is in the winter polar night skies, they say.