Understanding Sea Level Rise, p4: ice sheet dynamics and (13) melting feedbacks – a background to 21st century SLR acceleration

In 2016 two influential new publications raised the possibility of a rapid acceleration of sea level rise in the 21st century – to ±2 metres (DeConto & Pollard) or more (2-5m, Hansen et al). In this background article we take … Continue reading

Do the math! Because climate sensitivity is logarithmic, 1.5 degrees target was already breached at 400 ppm – if you look at CO2 only (& assume ECS = 3C)

According to ‘conventional climate science’ the currently already emitted amount of CO2 (404 ppm) leads to a committed warming of 1.56 degrees Celsius. To keep ‘the promise of Paris’ – the CO2 concentration must go down, down to below 400 … Continue reading

Real Global Temperature Trend, p25 – Paleoclimate experts to the rescue! Closer to 1-2 degrees Celsius in pipeline from long-term climate inertia

We would keep the story simpler, helpful real-world paleoclimate experts advise us: ‘Say the Pliocene was 2 to 3 degrees warmer than pre-industrial Holocene – at a CO2 concentration that is about as high as the one that’s currently measured, … Continue reading

Real Global Temperature Trend, p17 – Climate System Thermal Inertia is lower when you don’t assume CO2 flatline

Oceans, oceans, oceans. You thought the atmosphere was complex? Well, just take a look at the oceans. Oddly shaped features with disturbing cycles and conveyor belt currents. Home of the octopus, the blue whale and a Mariana Trench full of … Continue reading

Real Global Temperature Trend, p16 – Climate System Thermal Inertia: Trend Line = 0.6C higher than observed temperatures show

In part 16 of our temperature trend series we take a better look at one of the main reasons almost everyone still underestimates climate urgency: ‘Thermal inertia’ of the climate system – a delay between the moment of emissions of … Continue reading

Real Global Temperature Trend, p10 – Refining cloud feedbacks lifts climate sensitivity to 5-5.3 degrees(!), say Yale researchers

Climate models have falsely assumed a (strong) cloud brightening cooling feedback, researchers of Yale University (Ivy Tan & Trude Storelvmo) and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (Mark Zelinka) write in Science. Refining cloud behaviour in a warming atmosphere leads to … Continue reading

Real Global Temperature Trend, p5 – Climate Sensitivity higher when models include subtropical cloud-decrease feedback

We could say clouds are too complicated for climate science – and ignore them forever. We could also just try to incorporate them in the models. If you do, chance is you’ll find climate sensitivity is underestimated, a very interesting … Continue reading

Important update: Here is why crazy February temperature record is NOT the result of El Niño

Yesterday we pointed out that it is odd that it is actually the NASA GISS temperature dataset that shows the largest temperature anomaly for February 2016, namely 1.35 degrees Celsius above the 1955-1980 baseline. Indeed, a monthly deviation that really … Continue reading