Do the math! Because climate sensitivity is logarithmic, 1.5 degrees target was already breached at 400 ppm – if you look at CO2 only (& assume ECS = 3C)

According to ‘conventional climate science’ the currently already emitted amount of CO2 (404 ppm) leads to a committed warming of 1.56 degrees Celsius. To keep ‘the promise of Paris’ – the CO2 concentration must go down, down to below 400 … Continue reading

Real Global Temperature Trend, p22 – World still on course for dramatic 3 degrees warming, need to more than double reduction speed

Let’s keep this one short, because in essence there’s nothing new. Before the start of the Paris climate summit we saw that if you combine all the world’s nations’ 2025 & 2030 emission reduction targets you get to a pathway … Continue reading

Real Global Temperature Trend, p21 – Science is ruthless. We have ‘about zero’ years of emissions to stay below 1.5 degrees

That is if you correct for one important piece of scientific criticism to the below graph. But even if you prefer to ignore what may seem the nitty gritty of climatology and accept a maximum global carbon budget of 8.9 … Continue reading

Real Global Temperature Trend, p19 – There is hot, hotter, hottest – and 2016: dangerously close to pre-industrial +1.5 degrees…

The 19th edition of our global temperature trend series is ‘just a graph’. That is because we are still overwhelmed by Break Free 2016. And because some graphs simply speak for themselves. The progression of the 2016 hottest year global … Continue reading

Real Global Temperature Trend, p11 – Under agreed 1.5 degrees target world has 8 years of emissions for rest of century

And that understanding has just ended the Age of Coal. Thank you coal – it’s been great fun. We’ll have to leave the rest of you where you’ve been for the previous millions of years. In our quest to uncover … Continue reading

#BreakFree2016 – If 6 countries would stop exporting coal, that would be very helpful

Just 6 countries: The United States, Colombia, South Africa, Russia, Indonesia and Australia. If somehow we could sprinkle (perhaps shake) a little common sense, the rest of the world would be deprived of imports of the most polluting and CO2-intensive fossil fuel … Continue reading

Another shocking climate record: Despite the talk, atmospheric CO2 rise accelerating, never before this fast, carbon feedbacks tip Earth past 404 ppm!

It’s three months since ‘world leaders’ agreed during the climate summit in Paris that climatic warming must be limited to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. Yesterday’s news came from Hawaii, where the world’s best annual measurements show that the … Continue reading

Climate Record Update: Did northern hemisphere breach +2C climate target in early March, or did we ‘just’ breach +1.5?

Baselines, baselines, baselines, everyone. What goes for emission reduction targets also goes for temperature measurements: Let’s stick together! The graph in our first post had some fawlty measurements. But we STILL breached pre-industrial +2(!) Take a close look at below … Continue reading