Science short: Does climate change increase risk of conflict? Yes – says this metastudy

In 2014 a Stanford University research group reviewed 55 scientific studies to investigate whether climate change significantly increases the risk of intergroup conflict. Their conclusion is that it does:

North Africa to lose another breadbasket due to climate change – Egypt’s Nile Delta dries out and submerges simultaneously, millions of migrants likely

Climate change not only causes decreased agricultural production due to droughts and desertification in Mediterranean North Africa and the ‘Fertile Crescent’ of the Middle East – it will also cost the region several thousands square kilometers of its most productive … Continue reading

The Syrian drought of 2006-2010 fits in climate trend of lower precipitation and higher temperatures, this graph shows

Over 2006 to 2010 a prolonged drought, unprecedented in modern documented history, caused a farming collapse in Northeastern Syria. Winter rainfall in the otherwise green & productive ‘Fertile Crescent’ decreased by at least a third in Syria (and up to … Continue reading

To shear or not to shear – these 5 images show El Niño’s possible effect on Atlantic hurricanes, and other jet stream stuff

Ten years after Katrina* the world is on the brink of a whole new cluster of climatic disasters, including wide-spread coral bleaching, Pacific atol floods, possibly another devasting Brazil drought and another record-breaking hot year, following from the currently developing … Continue reading

Graph shows countries urgently need to strengthen 2030 emission targets before Paris climate summit – emissions gap >19Gt CO2

Today’s Graph of the Day has a really sobering message. Within four months of the crucial UNFCCC climate conference in Paris (‘COP21′) countries have submitted grossly insufficient emission reduction targets for the year 2030 – the target year for the … Continue reading

Global 2015-2016 winter forecast: comparing NCEP model runs to NOAA’s ‘typical El Niño patterns’ – Brazil in for shock, little relief for California

Normally we think of droughts over South East Asia (i.e. Borneo) and north-eastern Australia (Queensland) associated with strong El Niño events. This for instance led to dramatic fires through the tropical rainforests of Borneo, during the last ‘Super El Niño’ … Continue reading

2015 El Niño produces new climate record: 3 simultaneous Pacific category 4 hurricanes

Small Island States don’t (yet*) make global headlines, but this NASA picture shows a new Pacific climate record, which has a story for us all.

NASA climate model forecast shows 2015 El Niño to go off the charts during Paris climate summit

According to the world’s best-established dynamical climate models (e.g. NOAA NCEP, NASA GMAO) the 2015 El Niño is set to peak to dramatic proportions just before and possibly also during the all-important Paris climate summit – the UNFCCC’s ‘COP21′ – … Continue reading