Climate Forecasts

ENSO forecast: La Niña at least up to April 2012, El Niño possible

Comparing the different ENSO forecast models we conclude the first half of 2012 will most likely (on average) be dominated by the current La Niña phase. Most models however show progression towards neutral and some to El Niño before the … Continue reading →

No more ‘horror winters’ for Europe – not for several years ahead – and indeed also not this year

Extremely cold winters for Europe persisting for several months are very rare. The last one to fit the definition occurred in 1963, almost half a century ago. Still many weather forecasters and media seem inclined (as again happened this year) … Continue reading →

No White Christmas over the European plains – we are sorry we were right

In the last two or three years high pressure blockades dominated the West European December months and many countries including the UK, the Netherlands and Germany could enjoy White Christmases. Christmas Day 2010: some lovely sunshine over a frozen and … Continue reading →

Strong re-emergence of La Niña off northern Queensland coast – SST anomalies again up to 2-3 degrees – above average rains for weeks to come

With the current La Niña strongly in place at the onset of the Australian monsoon and reaching predicted optimum strength at the height of the rainy season the risk of experiencing a repeat of the Queensland floods of 2010-2011 is … Continue reading →

No reason to assume cold European winter ahead – too many sunspots

The cold winter of 2011-2012 that some meteorologists have predicted for Ireland, England, Scotland, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and Denmark is in fact to be called unlikely.