Climate Forecasts

Extreme heat wave Australia adds new colour to weather chart – forecast up to 54 degrees Celsius!

As red tones cannot get much darker when you approach black, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology had to resort to introducing new colours on their weather forecast maps for next week, when inland temperatures in South Australia can locally reach … Continue reading →

Both historical and 60-year trend show Dutch winters are warming – these graphs tell you how, why – and what to expect

Falling snow flakes are humbling. Not just because of their beauty, but also because of their gentle ability to completely paralyse a developed and overpopulated country with traffic jams, clogged railroad switches and closed runways. But although that (together with … Continue reading →

Local Indonesian El Niño progression, possibility strong wildfire season Borneo, Sumatra

Over the course of 2012 ENSO has moved from La Niña to El Niño state. Various ENSO forecasting models (see NOAA NECP, IRI ensemble below) now show Pacific equatorial SSTs anomalies will remain positive for the remainder of 2012 – … Continue reading →

Arctic ice has had a good winter

Each year at the end of winter the Arctic sea ice reaches its maximum extent. Although unsurprisingly this ice maximum receives less media attention than the annual sea ice minimum in September, combining the two gives a better representation of … Continue reading →

Hellmann development Dutch winters shows cold declining

In climatology development of the average may differ substantially from the extremes – both as a characteristic of the normal distribution – and the possibility of skewness increases. On average the Dutch climate shows a clear warming trend – but … Continue reading →