Both historical and 60-year trend show Dutch winters are warming – these graphs tell you how, why – and what to expect

Falling snow flakes are humbling. Not just because of their beauty, but also because of their gentle ability to completely paralyse a developed and overpopulated country with traffic jams, clogged railroad switches and closed runways. But although that (together with … Continue reading

Local Indonesian El Niño progression, possibility strong wildfire season Borneo, Sumatra

Over the course of 2012 ENSO has moved from La Niña to El Niño state. Various ENSO forecasting models (see NOAA NECP, IRI ensemble below) now show Pacific equatorial SSTs anomalies will remain positive for the remainder of 2012 – … Continue reading

Arctic ice has had a good winter

Each year at the end of winter the Arctic sea ice reaches its maximum extent. Although unsurprisingly this ice maximum receives less media attention than the annual sea ice minimum in September, combining the two gives a better representation of … Continue reading

Hellmann development Dutch winters shows cold declining

In climatology development of the average may differ substantially from the extremes – both as a characteristic of the normal distribution – and the possibility of skewness increases. On average the Dutch climate shows a clear warming trend – but … Continue reading

ENSO forecast: La Niña at least up to April 2012, El Niño possible

Comparing the different ENSO forecast models we conclude the first half of 2012 will most likely (on average) be dominated by the current La Niña phase. Most models however show progression towards neutral and some to El Niño before the … Continue reading